The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

@article{Green2007TheOV,
  title={The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts},
  author={Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong},
  journal={Interfaces},
  year={2007},
  volume={37},
  pages={287-299}
}
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts’ judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts using unaided judgment were little better than those of novices, and neither were much better than simply guessing. The forecasts of experts with more experience were no more accurate than those with less. Speculating that consideration of the relative frequency… CONTINUE READING