The Nature and Significance of Kuznets Cycles

  title={The Nature and Significance of Kuznets Cycles},
  author={Moses Abramovitz},
  journal={Economic Development and Cultural Change},
  pages={225 - 248}
  • M. Abramovitz
  • Published 1 April 1961
  • Economics
  • Economic Development and Cultural Change
Both are generalizations of apparently irregular behavior. Total output rarely rises or falls at the same rate for two consecutive months, and it seldom moves in the same direction for many months together. These irregular movements, however, are not without pattern. The month-to-month movements are, for periods of time, predominantly upward, and these periods of expansion are succeeded by other periods in which movements are predominantly downward. These are the business cycles of capitalist… 

Demographic Cycles and Economic Growth: The Long Swing Reconsidered

  • A. Kelley
  • Economics, History
    The Journal of Economic History
  • 1969
For many Western countries the history of the last two centuries reveals both a sustained rise in per capita output and a tendency toward a more equal distribution of the economic product. The

Long Cycles: A New Look at the Evidence

newed interest in the possibility of long 20-50 year cycles in economic activity. Interestingly enough, the belief in long waves has itself undergone a cycle of acceptance, rejection and

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This paper reviews the history of cyclical and long wave analysis and examines the evidence on changes in the momentum of economic growth in 16 advanced capitalist countries from 1820 to 2001. It

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This paper is a survey of the most important contributions to the development of a theory of ‘long waves’ in capitalist development. From the early forerunners of the discussion, via Kondratieff and

New international evidence on the cyclical behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered

Spectral analysis is a particularly valuable method for seeking dependences expressed as lags between different magnitudes. Its use in this article was first determined by the search for maximum

Instability constraints and development traps: An empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America

Latin America is a region marked by an endogenous pattern of volatility that halts its development process. This article consists of empirically testing its volatility characteristics in terms of

A Self-Generating Model of Long-Swings for the American Economy, 1860–1940

In this article we investigate the nature of long-term fluctuations (commonly called long-swings or Kuznets cycles) in the general level of activity of the American economy over the period between

I. THE SYSTEM OF CYCLES 1 Interaction between Kondratieff Waves and Juglar Cycles

Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7– 11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the

Determinants of Investment Behavior: United States Railroads, 1872-1941

PpT HE major purpose of this work is to improve our understanding of investment behavior in one important industry, the railroad industry, over some seven decades of American history. This