The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

  title={The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming},
  author={Frank Pattyn and Catherine Ritz and Edward Hanna and Xylar Storm Asay-Davis and R. T. DeConto and Ga{\"e}l Durand and Lionel Favier and Xavier Fettweis and Heiko Goelzer and Nicholas R. Golledge and Peter Kuipers Munneke and Jan T. M. Lenaerts and Sophie M. J. Nowicki and Antony J. Payne and Alexander Robinson and H{\'e}l{\`e}ne Seroussi and Luke D. Trusel and Michiel R. van den Broeke},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},
Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial… 

The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

It is shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible, and if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources.

Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning.

Antarctica's ice shelves help to control the flow of glacial ice as it drains into the ocean, meaning that the rate of global sea-level rise is subject to the structural integrity of these fragile,

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Abstract. We have studied the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under a range of constant climates typical of those projected for the end of the present century using a dynamical ice sheet model

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The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating pace, and ice loss will likely continue over the coming decades and centuries, with multimeter sea level rise likely for a mean global temperature increase of around 2°C above preindustrial levels on multicentennial time scales.

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The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleoenvironmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly

Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise

Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is

Ice Sheet Changes and GIA‐Induced Surface Displacement of the Larsemann Hills During the Last 50 kyr

The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is the largest potential source for future global sea level rise. However, there are widely diverging estimates of its contribution, which emphasizes the need to improve

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018

  • Andrew Erik Eric Ben Michiel Isabella Pippa Kate Ian Gerh Shepherd Ivins Rignot Smith van den Broeke VelicogA. Shepherd J. Wuite
  • Environmental Science
  • 2019
Comparing and combining 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance produces comparable results that approach the trajectory of the highest rates of sea-level rise projected by the IPCC.

Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Geoengineering

The Greenland ice sheet is expected lose at least 90% of its current volume if ice sheet summer temperatures warm by around 1.8 °C above pre‐industrial. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate

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The Southern Hemisphere cryosphere has recently shown regionally-contrasted responses to climate change, in particular to the positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode. However, the understanding



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A coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model is used to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment to sea-level rise.

Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene

This work simulates large-scale variability of the early to mid-Miocene Antarctic ice sheet using a climate–ice sheet coupling method utilizing a high-resolution atmospheric component to account for ice sheet–climate feedbacks and accounts for changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice sheet by using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models.

Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming

Abstract. Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010), both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice

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A model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

East Antarctic ice sheet most vulnerable to Weddell Sea warming

Models predict considerable spatial variability in the magnitude of future climate change around Antarctica, suggesting that some sectors of the continent may be more affected by these changes than

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We use an ice sheet model with realistic initial conditions to forecast how the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica responds to recently observed rates of submarine melting. In these simulations,

Strong Sensitivity of Pine Island Ice-Shelf Melting to Climatic Variability

Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice.

CMIP5 temperature biases and 21st century warming around the Antarctic coast

ABSTRACT Projections of ice-sheet mass balance require regional ocean warming projections derived from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). However, the coarse resolution of AOGCMs:

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves

Satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer are used to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt, which implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.