The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions

  title={The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions},
  author={Neil M. Ferguson and Christl Ann Donnelly and Roy M. Anderson},
  pages={1155 - 1160}
We present an analysis of the current foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain over the first 2 months of the spread of the virus. The net transmission potential of the pathogen and the increasing impact of control measures are estimated over the course of the epidemic to date. These results are used to parameterize a mathematical model of disease transmission that captures the differing spatial contact patterns between farms before and after the imposition of movement restrictions. The… 

Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control.

Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain

It is shown that the species mix, animal numbers and the number of distinct land parcels in a farm are central to explaining regional variation in transmission intensity, and that extended culling programmes were essential for controlling the epidemic to the extent achieved.

Transmission Parameters of the 2001 Foot and Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain

A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for estimating epidemiological parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain for a range of simple transmission models is developed and statistically significant evidence for assortative contact patterns between animals of the same species is demonstrated.

The impact of local heterogeneity on alternative control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease

  • R. Kao
  • Medicine
    Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
  • 2003
A hexagonal lattice simulation of FMD in Cumbria indicates that a policy based on expert knowledge would have exacerbated the epidemic compared with the policy as implemented, and targeting more distant, high–risk farms could be more valuable under different epidemic conditions.

Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic

A comparison between model and data at the individual farm level supports the contention that the type of the model used in 2001 was a reliable representation of the epidemic process, but highlights the difficulties of predicting the complex human response, in terms of control strategies to the perceived epidemic risk.

Assessing the efficacy of vaccination strategies in curbing epidemics of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in The Netherlands.

It is suggested that ring-culling or ring-vaccination strategies are insufficiently effective to achieve epidemic control in certain important areas in the Netherlands (with high densities of farms), and standard intervention measures as required by the EU would be sufficient to curb local propagation of the epidemic.

Spatial epidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease in Great Britain

A spatial epidemiological framework and the detailed disease and demographic data from the 2001 Great Britain (GB) FMD epidemic are used to develop static models of the risk of FMD susceptibility and transmission and these methods are applied to the outbreak of F MD in 2007.

The UK foot-and-mouth disease outbreak — the aftermath

Improved understanding is needed of where, how and why control measures initially failed in 2001 and how new policies should be implemented to receive the full confidence of scientists, veterinarians and the general public.



The importance of immediate destruction in epidemics of foot and mouth disease.

Epidemic simulations showed that implementing this policy could have resulted in a dramatic reduction in the number of pig farms affected in the Taiwan epidemic, and it is thus imperative that the necessary resources are available to implement this policy, should an outbreak occur.

An analysis of foot-and-mouth-disease epidemics in the UK.

There was a major epidemic of the foot-and-mouth-disease virus among cattle herds in the UK in 1967-68 which showed a very rapid early spread, a much slower later spread, and eventually infected 12%

Studies on the 1967–8 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic: The relation of weather to the spread of disease

SUMMARY An analysis of the 1967–8 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic with reference to the initial spread, the origin of outbreaks more than 60 km. from the main epidemic area, the series of outbreaks

Foot-and-mouth disease: the risk for Great Britain after 1992

The cessation of vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease will result in a higher proportion of fully susceptible cattle and in the event of outbreaks will increase the likelihood of the rapid dissemination of virus and increase the risk that the infection will enter Great Britain.

Forecasting the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease

The method by which airborne disease spread is assessed in the United Kingdom is described, which involves determining the likelihood of spread by all of the mechanisms, one of which is from airborne virus released by infected animals.

The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions

  • M. Keeling
  • Environmental Science
    Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
  • 1999
By modelling the correlations between individuals, this work is able to understand the role of spatial heterogeneity in invasion dynamics without the need for large–scale computer simulations.

Managing foot-and-mouth

The science of controlling disease outbreaks is studied in more detail than ever before in the history of infectious disease outbreaks.