The Fertility Transition Revisited: A Cohort Perspective

  title={The Fertility Transition Revisited: A Cohort Perspective},
  author={Tom{\'a}s Frejka},
  • T. Frejka
  • Published 8 August 2017
  • Economics, History
This paper deals with the fertility transition, one of the two essential components of the demographic transition. The analysis demonstrates that by applying the cohort perspective new insights are obtained about how the fertility transition unfolded. Within the overall framework of the fertility transition there were four distinct pathways of fertility trends. Combining these findings with those of other scholars shows that the demographic transition has not yet led to an equilibrium of… 

Figures from this paper

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries.

Findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised after a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980-2010.

All-time low period fertility in Finland: Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications

The ongoing period fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018, and its consequences for cohort fertility are assessed using complementary approaches.

Not just later, but fewer: novel trends in cohort fertility in the Nordic countries

With their historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as


The present study aims to explore the dynamics of the cohort fertility in Sweden, Spain, the Czech Republic and Ukraine. The postponement and recuperation of fertility are analysed in order to find

Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents

This study reviews the institutional factors that have influenced the fertility and family trends in five East Asian societies that experienced a precipitous transition to very low fertility: China,

Visualizing fertility trends for 45 countries using composite lattice plots

Background: The Human Fertility Database (HFD) and Human Fertility Collection (HFC) provide disaggregated data on age-specific fertility rates for 45 countries. These sources offer the opportunity to

Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

The number of low educated population segments in the Nordic region face increasing social and economic disadvantages that are reflected as well in their patterns of family formation, and childlessness is now highest among the least educated women in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

A A transição da fecundidade no Brasil ao longo do século XX – uma perspectiva regional

The essence of fertility transition is the shift from intensive reproduction, when many children are born but few survive, to a new pattern where births are fewer and planned. Some articles

Alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia: analysis and forecast

The purpose of the study is to discuss the alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia, and the migration outflow coefficient was included in the three forecasting scenarios because the inflow of some urban population to the countryside is not ruled out.

Analysis of fertility using cohort-specific socio-economic data

In this paper we propose a novel approach that relates age-specific cohort fertility rates with socioeconomic conditions faced by each cohort in each single age to understand the behaviour of



Fertility Decline and the Persistence of Low Fertility in a Changing Policy Environment—A Hungarian Case Study

In the period following the Second World War, Hungary was the first country in Europe in which the total fertility rate (TFR) fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman (in 1962), and

Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990

This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and

New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals

With period fertility having risen in many low-fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility

The demographic transition.

  • A. Coale
  • Economics
    Pakistan development review
  • 1984
An extensive study of the demographic transition in Europe shows the absence of a simple link of fertility with education, proportion urban, infant mortality and other aspects of development, and suggests the importance of such cultural factors as common customs associated with a common language, and the strength of religious traditions.

Childbearing trends and policies in Europe: Is a new demographic disequilibrium emerging?

In 2002 16 out of 39 European countries recorded period total fertility rates (TFR) below 1.3 and 25 countries recorded period TFRs below 1.5. The lowest-low fertility spread throughout Europe

Demographic transition theory.

  • D. Kirk
  • Economics
    Population studies
  • 1996
The fertility transition is becoming universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in the transition.

The European Middle Way? Low Fertility, Family Change, and Gradual Policy Adjustments in Austria and the Czech Republic

This chapter provides a comparative analysis of fertility and family transformations and policy responses in Austria and the Czech Republic, two neighboring countries in Central Europe that were

Fertility in Central and Eastern Europe after 1989: collapse and gradual recovery

»Fertilität in Mittelund Osteuropa nach 1989: Kollaps und graduelle Erholung«. This contribution looks at the recent transformations of reproductive and family behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe

The unfolding story of the second demographic transition.

It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a "split correlation" with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe.

Overview Chapter 5: Determinants of family formation and childbearing during the societal transition in Central and Eastern Europe

Societal conditions for early and high rates of childbearing were replaced by conditions generating late and low levels of fertility common in Western countries. Central among factors shaping the