The Entropy Score and its Uses in Earthquake Forecasting

@article{Harte2005TheES,
  title={The Entropy Score and its Uses in Earthquake Forecasting},
  author={D. Harte and D. Vere-Jones},
  journal={pure and applied geophysics},
  year={2005},
  volume={162},
  pages={1229-1253}
}
Suppose a forecasting scheme associates a probability p* with some observed outcome. The entropy score given to this forecast is then −logp*. This article provides a review of the background to this scoring method, its main properties, and its relationships to concepts such as likelihood, probability gain, and Molchan’s ν-τ diagram. It is shown that, in terms of this score, an intrinsic characterization can be given for the predictability of a given statistical forecasting model. Uses of the… Expand

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