# The Entropy Score and its Uses in Earthquake Forecasting

@article{Harte2005TheES, title={The Entropy Score and its Uses in Earthquake Forecasting}, author={D. Harte and D. Vere-Jones}, journal={pure and applied geophysics}, year={2005}, volume={162}, pages={1229-1253} }

Suppose a forecasting scheme associates a probability p* with some observed outcome. The entropy score given to this forecast is then −logp*. This article provides a review of the background to this scoring method, its main properties, and its relationships to concepts such as likelihood, probability gain, and Molchan’s ν-τ diagram. It is shown that, in terms of this score, an intrinsic characterization can be given for the predictability of a given statistical forecasting model. Uses of the… Expand

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