The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications

@inproceedings{Moore1975TheDM,
  title={The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications},
  author={Peter Gerald Moore and H. A. Lingstone and Murray Turoff},
  year={1975}
}
Cross-impact analysis is a method for revising estimated probabilities of future events in terms of estimated interactions among those events. [...] Key Method An extension also provides a necessary condition for the vector of absolute probabilities to be consistent with the relative probability matrix. An averaging technique is formulated for resolving inconsistencies in the matrix, and a nearest-point computation derived for resolving inconsistencies between the set of absolute probabilities and the matrix…Expand
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TLDR
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TLDR
The proposed approach begins by identifying the time lags in which the initial causal impact between each pair of variables emerges, and in order to determine the role of each variable these revised impacts are weighted by time.
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TLDR
A technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process, is suggested, and a simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships.
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Abstract Delphi is a popular, long-range, qualitative forecasting technique that has been extensively applied to a wide variety of problems in different domains. Since the method was conceived in the
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TLDR
Three experiments examined the accuracy in the Delphi method and found that predictions derived from the group were more accurate than those of 95 per cent of the individual panelists, but did not exceed in accuracy the best panelists.
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TLDR
It is concluded that a different focus of research is required to answer questions on Delphi effectiveness, focusing on an analysis of the process of judgment change within nominal groups.
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Policy Delphi was first introduced in 1969, and it is a process that seeks to generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential resolutions of a major policy issue, such as strategy and
The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques
TLDR
The results support the “theory of errors” as an explanation of the effectiveness of the Delphi technique, and measurement of panellists' ‘self-rated expertise’, “objective expertise”, and ‘desirability of outcomes’ show differential utility for a-priori panellist selection for structured groups.
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References

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TLDR
The Delphi method is basically defined as a method for the systematic solicitation and collation of informed judgments on a particular topic and has two important characteristics which distinguish it considerably from a polling procedure.
The Delphi Process in Marketing Decision Making
TLDR
A field experiment is described which uses the Delphi Process to assign subjective probabilities to the set of possible demand levels for a company's product.
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No one company has resources that are sufficient to permit it to counter all potential threats or to explore all available opportunities resulting from today's technology explosion. Accordingly, each
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