The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications

@inproceedings{Moore1975TheDM,
  title={The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications},
  author={Peter Gerald Moore and H. A. Lingstone and Murray Turoff},
  year={1975}
}
Cross-impact analysis is a method for revising estimated probabilities of future events in terms of estimated interactions among those events. [...] Key Method An extension also provides a necessary condition for the vector of absolute probabilities to be consistent with the relative probability matrix. An averaging technique is formulated for resolving inconsistencies in the matrix, and a nearest-point computation derived for resolving inconsistencies between the set of absolute probabilities and the matrix…Expand
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4,734 Citations
Highly Influential Citations
148
Background Citations
550
Methods Citations
854
Results Citations
12

4,734 Citations

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Scenario construction via Delphi and cross-impact analysis
TLDR
The authors' proposal adds tools for detecting critical events and for producing a graphical representation to the previous scenario-generation methods based on CIA, and allows working with large sets of events without using large computational infrastructures.
Enhancing Regional Analysis With The Delphi Method
Delphi methodology has been employed since the 1950s in a wide range of fields and applications, typically as an alternative to quantitative modeling and analysis. Based on the author's experience in…
A qualitative cross-impact approach to find the key technology
TLDR
Inference algorithms based on fuzzy relations are developed for a cross-impact model designed for a technology impact assessment that considers not only the direct impact but also the indirect impact.
Qualitative cross-impact analysis with time consideration
TLDR
The proposed approach begins by identifying the time lags in which the initial causal impact between each pair of variables emerges, and in order to determine the role of each variable these revised impacts are weighted by time.
A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept
TLDR
A technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process, is suggested, and a simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships.
Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975–1994)
Abstract Delphi is a popular, long-range, qualitative forecasting technique that has been extensively applied to a wide variety of problems in different domains. Since the method was conceived in the…
An examination of factors contributing to delphi accuracy
TLDR
Three experiments examined the accuracy in the Delphi method and found that predictions derived from the group were more accurate than those of 95 per cent of the individual panelists, but did not exceed in accuracy the best panelists.
The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis
TLDR
It is concluded that a different focus of research is required to answer questions on Delphi effectiveness, focusing on an analysis of the process of judgment change within nominal groups.
Policy Delphi: Contribution to Infrastructure and Engineering Asset Management Organizations
Policy Delphi was first introduced in 1969, and it is a process that seeks to generate the strongest possible opposing views on the potential resolutions of a major policy issue, such as strategy and…
The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques
TLDR
The results support the “theory of errors” as an explanation of the effectiveness of the Delphi technique, and measurement of panellists' ‘self-rated expertise’, “objective expertise”, and ‘desirability of outcomes’ show differential utility for a-priori panellist selection for structured groups.
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References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 14 REFERENCES
Delphi and its potential impact on information systems
  • M. Turoff
  • Computer Science
    AFIPS '71 (Fall)
  • 1972
TLDR
The Delphi method is basically defined as a method for the systematic solicitation and collation of informed judgments on a particular topic and has two important characteristics which distinguish it considerably from a polling procedure.
The Delphi Process in Marketing Decision Making
TLDR
A field experiment is described which uses the Delphi Process to assign subjective probabilities to the set of possible demand levels for a company's product.
Technological forecasting in planning for company growth
No one company has resources that are sufficient to permit it to counter all potential threats or to explore all available opportunities resulting from today's technology explosion. Accordingly, each…
Medicines in the 1990's: Experience with a Delphi forecast
Abstract ‘Medicines in the 1990's’ created great public interest when it was published recently. It forecast, for example, that by 1990 it should be possible to replace almost all parts of the body,…
On the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences
This is a new epistemological approach to the inexact sciences. The purpose of all science is to explain and predict in an objective manner. While in the exact sciences explanation and prediction…
Some Prospects for Residential Housing by 1985, R-13, Institute for the Future
  • 1971
Also discussed in Gordon Wills, "The Preparation and Deployment of Technological Forecasts," Long Range Planning, Mar
  • Technological Forecasting,
  • 1972
Currill, "Technological Forecasting in Six Major U
  • K. Companies," Long Range Planning,
  • 1972
Luzer, Some Prospects for Social Change by 1985 and Their Impact on Time/Money Budgets, R-25, Institute for the Future
  • 1972
The Future of Communication Services in the Home, Round 11 Questionnaire
  • Business Planning,
  • 1972
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