The Consequences of the Hindsight Bias in Medical Decision Making

  title={The Consequences of the Hindsight Bias in Medical Decision Making},
  author={Hal R. Arkes},
  journal={Current Directions in Psychological Science},
  pages={356 - 360}
  • H. Arkes
  • Published 25 September 2013
  • Psychology
  • Current Directions in Psychological Science
The hindsight bias manifests in the tendency to exaggerate the extent to which a past event could have been predicted beforehand. This bias has particularly detrimental effects in the domain of medical decision making. I present a demonstration of the bias, its contribution to overconfidence, and its involvement in judgments of medical malpractice. Finally, I point out that physicians and psychologists can collaborate to the mutual benefit of both professions. 

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