On the problems of modelling and reliability assessment of construction projects duration
- P. Jaskowski, S. Biruk
- Reliability: Theory & Applications,
The environment in which the project schedule will be executed is far from being static. Projects are subject to various uncertainties that have negative effect on activity durations. This is most apparent in the case of construction projects. The frequency and impact of risks depend on project-specific, contractor-specific and location-specific conditions. Identifying critical sources of risk is crucial to minimize disturbance in project development and assure success. The paper presents risk analysis and assessment framework. For the risk evaluation, the AHP was adopted in the paper. The proposed risk model is based on evaluating and weighting the particular project’s characteristics and expected conditions. The method to assist planners in determining activity duration distribution parameters according to risk level is presented. This approach, combined with simulation technique, is argued to improve project planning and evaluation of risk mitigation alternatives.