The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis

  title={The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis},
  author={Paul Roebber and Lance F. Bosart},
  journal={Weather and Forecasting},
Abstract For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value of those forecasts is complex, the authors have examined their value across a range of real-world user contexts. It is found that although in most cases the meteorological information possessed considerable value to the users, human intervention… 

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