• Corpus ID: 198924946

The Black Swan of Cairo How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous Nassim

  title={The Black Swan of Cairo How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous Nassim},
  author={Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth},
of the U.S. political and economic elite? In 2008, when the global financial system imploded, the cry that no one could have seen this coming was heard everywhere, despite the existence of numerous analyses showing that a crisis was unavoidable. It is no surprise that one hears precisely the same response today regarding the current turmoil in the Middle East. The critical issue in both cases is the artificial suppression of volatility—the ups and downs of life—in the name of stability. It is… 

When the levee breaks: A forecasting model of violent and nonviolent dissent

Abstract Forecasting major political conflicts is a long-time interest in conflict research. However, the literature thus far has focused almost exclusively on armed conflicts such as civil wars.

Instability of Interest Bearing Debt Finance and the Islamic Finance Alternative

Evidence has been mounting that the interest-based debt financing regime is under increasing distress. Evidence also suggests that the financial crises, whatever title they carried – exchange rate

Revolution empirics : predicting the Arab

The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A

The Future of the Middle East and North Africa

Despite the expectations born of the Arab Spring 30 months ago, the outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region looks much more clouded today. The crisis in Egypt has underlined the

Accelerating Learning in Active Management: The Alpha-Brier Process

The authors propose the Alpha-Brier process to help firms improve forecasts guiding investment decisions and lets managers test which methods of training, incentivizing, and aggregating judgments deliver the biggest boosts to accuracy.

Bitter Years

Since the outbreak of the so-called Arab Spring in 2011, the regional system in the Middle East, as well as in the sub-regional system of the Arabian Gulf, has been in flux. Under these new

Democratic governance at times of crisis: rebuilding our communities and building on our citizens*

Crises have opened avenues to change and have often shown the way to progress and reform. Examples abound world-wide. Crises have proved beneficial when citizens and governments have taken pains to

The New Political Economy of the Macroprudential Ideational Shift

From late 2008 onwards, in the space of six months, international financial regulatory networks centred around the Swiss city of Basel presided over a startlingly rapid ideational shift, the

The Arab Spring in North Africa: origins and prospects

The insurgencies in Tunisia and Egypt – the Jasmine and the Tahrir Revolutions – seemed to offer great hope of the outbreak of democratic change in the Middle East and North Africa in what has come