The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions

  title={The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions},
  author={Daniel Goodkind},
China launched an unprecedented program to control its population in 1971. Experts have dismissed the official estimate of 400 million births averted by this program as greatly exaggerated yet neglect to provide their own estimates. Counterfactual projections based on fertility declines in other countries suggest that China’s program-averted population numbered 360–520 million as of 2015. The low end of this range is based on Vietnam—China’s best national comparator, with a two-child program of… 
The Limits and Consequences of Population Policy: Evidence from China's Wan Xi Shao Campaign
Prior to the famous One Child Policy, China's total fertility rate declined by more than 50% during the 1970s - one of the most rapid sustained fertility declines documented in modern history.
If Science Had Come First: A Billion Person Fable for the Ages (A Reply to Comments)
The demographic impact of China’s birth planning program, the most determined attempt to control the size of the human species that the world has ever known, is estimated to be nearly 1 billion larger by 2060.
Assessing the impact of the “one-child policy” in China: A synthetic control approach
It is found that while the earlier, less restrictive ‘later-longer-fewer’ policy introduced in 1973 played a critical role in driving down the fertility rate, the role of the ‘one-child policy’ introduced in 1979 and its descendants was much less significant.
The Limits (and Human Costs) of Population Policy: Fertility Decline and Sex Selection in China under Mao
The vast majority of China’s fertility decline predates the famous One Child Policy – and instead occurred under its predecessor, the Later, Longer, Fewer (LLF) fertility control policy. In this
China’s One-Child Policy: Population Control and Its Unintended Consequences
In 1979, the Chinese government established the one-child policy, the most severe state-mandated family planning policy in the world. This policy was intended to curb rapid population growth in China
Formal comment on “Assessing the impact of the ‘one-child policy’ in China: A synthetic control approach”
The authors make subjective choices regarding the non-fertility characteristics used to form their comparators which leads to an underestimation of the impact of birth planning, and their visual presentation, which focuses on the two key sub-phases of the birth program, underrepresents its overall impact.
The lowest fertility rates in the world? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese 1% sample census
As the world’s largest population, the total fertility rate (TFR) of China is of global significance. Furthermore, the introduction of recent reforms designed to lessen restrictions on childbearing
Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents
This study reviews the institutional factors that have influenced the fertility and family trends in five East Asian societies that experienced a precipitous transition to very low fertility: China,
Analysis of Development of Birth Control Policy in China Under Economic Perspective
  • Xinyi Wang
  • Economics
    Proceedings of the 2021 3rd International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2021)
  • 2021
The fertility restraint policy in China was officially announced in 1979 and still has continuous updates in recent years, intending to maintain continuity and stability of the demographic structure
Socioeconomic Factors Have Been the Major Driving Force of China’s Fertility Changes Since the Mid-1990s
“The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions” (abbreviated to “Astonishing” hereafter), recently published in this journal, is a clear indication of continuing debates on these issues.


Challenging Myths About China’s One-Child Policy
Evidence is presented contradicting claims that Mao Zedong consistently opposed efforts to limit China’s population growth and presided over a major switch to coercive birth planning after 1970, and as much as three-quarters of the decline in fertility since 1970 occurred before the launching of the one-child policy.
Population, Policy, and Politics: How Will History Judge China's One‐Child Policy?
one of the main puzzles of modern population and social history is why, among all countries confronting rapid population growth in the second half of the twentieth century, China chose to adopt an
China's longest campaign: birth planning in the People's Republic, 1949-2005.
During the three decades that followed the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), many scholars explored the impact of high fertility on economic development. Nelson (1956) suggested there
China's Far Below-Replacement Fertility and Its Long-Term Impact: Comments on the Preliminary Results of the 2010 Census
The Chinese government conducted its sixth national census in 2010 and released its major results in April 2011. According to the National Bureau of Statistics the quality of the census was very
The claim that China's fertility restrictions contributed to the use of prenatal sex selection: A sceptical reappraisal
The logic and evidence underlying most observers' assumption that China's fertility restrictions contribute to the use of prenatal sex selection are questioned, and the recent surge in sex selection of first births that has perpetuated the distortions seems unrelated to policy.
The Pree inent Role of Government Intervention in China's Family Revolution
This article argues that changes in family patterns in China are largely a result of direct government intervention rather than an inevitable byproduct of industrialization urbanization and other
Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China
A new triangulation of evidence indicates that about 19% of children at ages 0–4 were unreported in the 2000 census, more than double that of the 1990 census, and suggests that China’s fertility in the late 1990s (and perhaps beyond) was below officially adjusted levels.
How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined
According to births in the last year as reported in China's 2000 census, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the year 2000 in China was 1.22 children per woman. This estimate is widely considered to be
Abortion in Vietnam: measurements, puzzles, and concerns.
Because family-size preferences are still declining, abortion rates may continue to increase unless the incidence of unwanted pregnancy can be reduced, a goal that Vietnamese population specialists are seeking to achieve.
Underreporting of Births and Infant Deaths in Rural China: Evidence from Field Research in One County of Northern China
  • M. Merli
  • Economics
    The China Quarterly
  • 1998
The author argues that the evidence supports deliberate nonreporting due to FP policies, and indicates an excess number of male births and underreporting of infant mortality.