The 2016 Referendum, Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate-level Analysis of the Result

@article{Goodwin2016The2R,
  title={The 2016 Referendum, Brexit and the Left Behind: An Aggregate-level Analysis of the Result},
  author={Matthew J. Goodwin and Oliver Heath},
  journal={The Political Quarterly},
  year={2016},
  volume={87},
  pages={323-332}
}
Why did Britain vote for Brexit? What was the relative importance of factors such as education, age, immigration and ethnic diversity? And to what extent did the pattern of public support for Brexit across the country match the pattern of public support in earlier years for eurosceptic parties, notably the UK Independence Party (UKIP)? In this article we draw on aggregate-level data to conduct an initial exploration of the 2016 referendum vote. First, we find that turnout was generally higher… 
View via Publisher
kar.kent.ac.uk
409 Citations
Highly Influential Citations
34
Background Citations
174
Methods Citations
15
Results Citations
21

Figures and Tables from this paper

409 Citations

The 2016 EU Referendum: Explaining Support for Brexit Among Would-Be British MPs
The outcome of the 2016 referendum on European Union membership took many by surprise and has continued to define the political discourse in Britain. Despite there being a growing body of research…
Why an EU Referendum? Why in 2016?
The outcome of the UK’s Brexit Referendum has been blamed on political factors, such as concerns about sovereignty, and economic factors such as migration, and trade integration. Analyses of the…
Taking back control? Investigating the role of immigration in the 2016 vote for Brexit
The 2016 referendum marked a watershed moment in the history of the United Kingdom. The public vote to leave the European Union (EU)—for a ‘Brexit’—brought an end to the country’s membership of the…
Explaining support for Brexit among parliamentary candidates: the case of Wales
The 2016 EU referendum was a key moment in the history of the United Kingdom. It has changed the course of the country and continues to shape political competition in the UK. Despite research on…
The Gender Backlash in the Vote for Brexit
Despite a relationship between gender and support for populist causes in cross-national research, including in the 2016 US Presidential election, the role of gender has been missing in analysis of…
Did Austerity Cause Brexit ? ∗ Thiemo Fetzer July 22 , 2018
Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016…
Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote
This article investigates forces that shaped the decisions voters made in the 23 June 2016 referendum on the UK’s continued membership in the European Union. A multivariate model informed by previous…
Why did Cornwall vote for Brexit? Assessing the implications for EU structural funding programmes
In the 2016 referendum on UK EU membership, regions which benefitted from high levels of structural funds voted to leave the EU. This was unexpected given the Europeanisation processes expected of…
Brexit writings and the war of position over migration, ‘race’ and class
  • B. Rogaly
  • Political Science
    Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space
  • 2019
It has been rightly suggested that Brexit is not a single, one-off event but a process that exists on the surface in many arenas of everyday life. Part of this process is represented by writings on…
What about the workers? The implications of Brexit for British and European labour
In June 2016, a small majority of voters called for Britain to leave the EU. In this article, we discuss the referendum itself and the form which Brexit may take. It has become clear that the current…
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-9 OF 9 REFERENCES
Working Class Votes and Conservative Losses: Solving the UKIP Puzzle
Opinions are divided on whether the Conservatives or Labour need to worry most about UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the 2015 General Election. How do we reconcile evidence of substantial levels of…
Euroscepticism and education: A longitudinal study of 12 EU member states, 1973–2010
This study examines the relationship between educational attainment and euroscepticism from 1973 to 2010. Existing research has shown that, driven by utilitarian considerations, political cues and…
The 1975 Referendum
Preface to the Second Edition - Acknowledgements - Chronology - Introduction - Renegotiation - Legislation - Pro-Marketeers - Anti-Marketeers - Local Campaigning - National Campaigning - Broadcasting…
A YouGov poll for The Times newspaper suggested that 45 per cent of Labour voters thought that the Labour Party either backed Brexit or was split on the referendum
    Most Labour MPs represent a constituency that voted Leave
      The EU referendum: How did Westminster constituencies vote? Available online
        The EU referendum shows how the sovereignty of Britain's people can now trump its parliament
        • The Daily Telegraph
        For further discussion of the 'left behind' and political geography see Matthew Goodwin and Caitlin Milazzo
        • UKIP: Inside the Campaign to Redraw the Map of British Politics
        ‘ Most Labour MPs represent a constituency that voted Leave ’
        • Revolt on the Right : Explaining Public Support for the Radical Right in Britain
        • 2014