Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability

  title={Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability},
  author={Raffaella Giacomini and Halbert L. White},
We argue that the current framework for predictive ability testing (e.g., West, 1996) is not necessarily useful for real-time forecast selection, i.e., for assessing which of two competing forecasting methods will perform better in the future. [] Key Method We capture important determinants of forecast performance that are neglected in the existing literature by evaluating what we call the forecasting method (the model and the parameter estimation procedure), rather than just the forecasting model. Compared…
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