Testing the historic tracking of climate models

@article{Beenstock2016TestingTH,
  title={Testing the historic tracking of climate models},
  author={M. Beenstock and Y. Reingewertz and N. Paldor},
  journal={International Journal of Forecasting},
  year={2016},
  volume={32},
  pages={1234-1246}
}
  • M. Beenstock, Y. Reingewertz, N. Paldor
  • Published 2016
  • Economics
  • International Journal of Forecasting
  • IPCC and others use in-sample correlations to confirm the ability of climate models to track the global surface temperature (GST) historically. However, a high correlation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for confirmation, because GST is nonstationary. In addition, the tracking errors must also be stationary. Cointegration tests using monthly hindcast data for GST generated by 22 climate change models over the period 1880–2010 are carried out for testing the hypothesis that these… CONTINUE READING

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