# Testing earthquake predictions

@article{Luen2008TestingEP, title={Testing earthquake predictions}, author={Brad Luen and P. Stark}, journal={arXiv: Applications}, year={2008}, pages={302-315} }

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify 'chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is mod- eled as random. The null distribution of the number of successful predictions - or any other test statistic - is taken to be its distribution when the fixed set of predictions is applied to random seismicity. Such tests tacitly assume that the predictions do not depend… Expand

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