Testing earthquake predictions

@article{Luen2008TestingEP,
  title={Testing earthquake predictions},
  author={Brad Luen and P. Stark},
  journal={arXiv: Applications},
  year={2008},
  pages={302-315}
}
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify 'chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is mod- eled as random. The null distribution of the number of successful predictions - or any other test statistic - is taken to be its distribution when the fixed set of predictions is applied to random seismicity. Such tests tacitly assume that the predictions do not depend… Expand

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