Testing a Bayesian Learning Theory of Deterrence among Serious Juvenile Offenders

@inproceedings{Loughran2011TestingAB,
  title={Testing a Bayesian Learning Theory of Deterrence among Serious Juvenile Offenders},
  author={Thomas A. Loughran},
  year={2011}
}
The effect of criminal experience on risk perceptions is of central importance to deterrence theory but has been vastly understudied. This article develops a realistic Bayesian learning model of how individuals will update their risk perceptions over time in response to the signals they receive during their offending experiences. This model implies a simple function that we estimate to determine the deterrent effect of an arrest. We find that an individual who commits one crime and is arrested… CONTINUE READING

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