Tail risk of contagious diseases

@article{Cirillo2020TailRO,
  title={Tail risk of contagious diseases},
  author={Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb},
  journal={Nature Physics},
  year={2020},
  volume={16},
  pages={606-613}
}
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a sobering reminder of the extensive damage brought about by epidemics, phenomena that play a vivid role in our collective memory, and that have long been identified as significant sources of risk for humanity. The use of increasingly sophisticated mathematical and computational models for the spreading and the implications of epidemics should, in principle, provide policy- and decision-makers with a greater situational awareness regarding their potential risk… 

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