author={Judea Pearl},
  journal={Econometric Theory},
  pages={152 - 179}
  • J. Pearl
  • Published 10 June 2014
  • Economics
  • Econometric Theory
Haavelmo was the first to recognize the capacity of economic models to guide policies. This paper describes some of the barriers that Haavelmo’s ideas have had (and still have) to overcome and lays out a logical framework that has evolved from Haavelmo’s insight and matured into a coherent and comprehensive account of the relationships between theory, data, and policy questions. The mathematical tools that emerge from this framework now enable investigators to answer complex policy and… 
Beyond Overall Treatment Effects: Leveraging Covariates in Randomized Experiments Guided by Causal Structure
This commentary aims to raise awareness of the DAG methodology, explain its usefulness to experimental research, and encourage adoption in the IS community for studies using RCTs as well as observational data.
Labour by Design: Contributions of David Card, Joshua Angrist, and Guido Imbens
The 2021 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel was awarded to David Card “for his empirical contributions to labour economics” and to Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens
Toward practical causal epidemiology
A Glance at Causality Theories for Artificial Intelligence
Causality plays a key role in the understanding of the world by humans. As such, it has been considered by artificial intelligence researchers from different perspectives ranging from the use of


This work embeds Haavelmo’s framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) commonly used in the literature of causality and discusses the limitations of methods that solely use the information expressed in DAGs for the identification of economic models.
Reflections on Heckman and Pinto's Causal Analysis After Haavelmo
Working paper. TECHNICAL REPORT R-420 November 2013 Reflections on Heckman and Pinto’s “Causal Analysis After Haavelmo” Judea Pearl University of California, Los Angeles Computer Science Department
The Causal Foundations of Structural Equation Modeling
Abstract : The role of causality in SEM research is widely perceived to be, on the one hand, of pivotal methodological importance and, on the other hand, confusing, enigmatic and controversial. The
Taking the Dogma out of Econometrics: Structural Modeling and Credible Inference
Without a doubt, there has been a "credibility revolution" in applied econometrics. One contributing development has been in the improvement and increased use in data analysis of "structural
The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con Out of Econometrics
This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer’s (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results
Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia
My first reaction to "The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics," authored by Joshua D. Angrist and Jorn-Steffen Pischke, was: Wow! This paper makes a stunningly good case for relying on
Counterfactuals and Causal Structure
The structural account of causation derives inter alia from Herbert Simon’s work on causal order and was developed in Hoover’s Causality in Macroeconomics and earlier articles. A substantial
An Extended Class of Instrumental Variables for the Estimation of Causal Effects
This paper examines the ways in which structural systems can yield observed variables, other than the cause or treatment of interest, that can play an instrumental role in identifying and estimating
But Economics Is Not an Experimental Science
The fact is, economics is not an experimental science and cannot be. "Natural" experiments and "quasi" experiments are not in fact experiments. They are rhetorical devices that are often invoked to
Review of N . Cartwright “ Hunting Causes and Using Them ”
Nancy Cartwright’s recent book “Hunting Causes and Using Them” comes to causality in an interesting stage of her stormy, century-old courtship with economics. A survey article by Kevin Hoover (2004,