• Corpus ID: 51862263

TRACKING SEASONAL PREDICTION MODELS

@inproceedings{DelSole2015TRACKINGSP,
  title={TRACKING SEASONAL PREDICTION MODELS},
  author={Timothy DelSole and Claire Monteleoni and Scott McQuade and Michael K. Tippett and Kathleen Pegion and Jagadish Shukla},
  year={2015}
}
A machine learning algorithm for combining predictions is applied to seasonal predictions of the NINO3.4 index from six coupled atmosphere-ocean models. The algorithm adaptively tracks a dynamic sequence of “best experts” and produces a probability that a particular expert is best. Averaging based on this probability effectively yields a multi-model prediction. The algorithm gives seasonal predictions that are more skillful than any individual model and better than the multi-model mean. 

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