Corpus ID: 214641039

Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact

  title={Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact},
  author={Alexis Akira Toda},
  journal={arXiv: Populations and Evolution},
  • Alexis Akira Toda
  • Published 2020
  • Economics, Biology
  • arXiv: Populations and Evolution
  • I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the benchmark model, 28% of the population may be simultaneously infected at the peak, potentially overwhelming the healthcare system. The peak reduces to 6.2% under the optimal mitigation policy that controls the timing and intensity of social distancing. A stylized… CONTINUE READING
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