Corpus ID: 214641039

Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact

@article{Toda2020SusceptibleInfectedRecoveredD,
  title={Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact},
  author={Alexis Akira Toda},
  journal={arXiv: Populations and Evolution},
  year={2020}
}

Alexis Akira Toda

Published 2020

Economics, Biology

arXiv: Populations and Evolution

I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the benchmark model, 28% of the population may be simultaneously infected at the peak, potentially overwhelming the healthcare system. The peak reduces to 6.2% under the optimal mitigation policy that controls the timing and intensity of social distancing. A stylized… CONTINUE READING

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