Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?

@article{Pezzo2003SurpriseDO,
  title={Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?},
  author={Mark V Pezzo},
  journal={Memory},
  year={2003},
  volume={11},
  pages={421 - 441}
}
  • M. Pezzo
  • Published 1 January 2003
  • Psychology
  • Memory
This paper examines predictions concerning the absence of hindsight bias. Some hypothesise that because hindsight bias increases with outcome "surprisingness", only unsurprising outcomes will remove it. Others suggest the opposite--that very surprising outcomes will reduce or reverse the bias. A proposed sense-making model suggests that unexpected outcomes (i.e., initially surprising) invoke greater sensemaking, which typically produces greater hindsight bias. If the process is not successful… 
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