Subjective Probability Forecasts for Recessions

@article{Lahiri2006SubjectivePF,
  title={Subjective Probability Forecasts for Recessions},
  author={Kajal Lahiri and Jiazhuo G. Wang},
  journal={Business Economics},
  year={2006},
  volume={41},
  pages={26-37}
}
Probabilistic forecasts are often more useful in business than point forecasts. In this paper, the joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during the next two quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated using various decompositions of the Quadratic Probability Score (QPS). Using the odds ratio and other forecasting accuracy scores appropriate for rare event forecasting, we find that the forecasts have statistically significant accuracy… CONTINUE READING
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