Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions

  title={Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions},
  author={Willy P. Aspinall},
When a potentially dangerous volcano becomes restless, civil authorities invariably turn to scientific specialists to help them anticipate what the volcano will do next, and to provide them with guidance as to the likely threats. Although it is usually possible to discern the earliest signs of unrest, the science of forecasting the course and timing of eruptions remains inexact. In this chapter, recent volcanic crises in the Eastern Caribbean are recounted in order to trace the emergence of a… 

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