Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of U . S . Recessions

@inproceedings{DuekerStrengtheningTC,
  title={Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of U . S . Recessions},
  author={Michael J. Dueker}
}
What is the message from stock and bond markets about the likelihood of a recession within the next year?” Monetary policymakers must examine such questions as part of a lookat-everything approach to decision making. Policymakers need quantitative analysis of the relevance of the answers, because many touted indicators actually predict very little about the future course of the economy. A quantitative appraisal would establish whether a recession indicator provides significant signals prior to… CONTINUE READING
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