Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of U . S . Recessions

  title={Strengthening the Case for the Yield Curve as a Predictor of U . S . Recessions},
  author={Michael J. Dueker}
What is the message from stock and bond markets about the likelihood of a recession within the next year?” Monetary policymakers must examine such questions as part of a lookat-everything approach to decision making. Policymakers need quantitative analysis of the relevance of the answers, because many touted indicators actually predict very little about the future course of the economy. A quantitative appraisal would establish whether a recession indicator provides significant signals prior to… CONTINUE READING
Highly Influential
This paper has highly influenced 10 other papers. REVIEW HIGHLY INFLUENTIAL CITATIONS
Highly Cited
This paper has 58 citations. REVIEW CITATIONS


Publications citing this paper.

59 Citations

Citations per Year
Semantic Scholar estimates that this publication has 59 citations based on the available data.

See our FAQ for additional information.


Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 14 references

Dombrosky . “ Predicting Real Growth Using the Yield Curve

M. Ann

Predicting Real Growth Using the Yield Curve

J. G. A. Haubrich, Ann M. Dombrosky Joseph G. Haubrich

Recessions : Financial Variables as Leading Indicators

Frederic S. Mishkin, S. PredictingU.

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

Engle, F Robert
IMF Staff Papers (September • 1994

The Use of Financial Spreads as Indicator Variables : Evidence from the United Kingdom and Germany

E. Phillip Davis
IMF Staff Papers ( September • 1994

The Yield Curve and Real Activity,

Hu, Zuliu
IMF Staff Papers (December • 1993

Why Does the PaperBill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity ?

James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson

The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity

Arturo Estrella, Gikas Hardouvelis
Journal of Finance ( June • 1991
View 1 Excerpt

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…