Strategic Choices of Migrants and Smugglers in the Central Mediterranean Sea

  title={Strategic Choices of Migrants and Smugglers in the Central Mediterranean Sea},
  author={Katherine Hoffmann Pham and Junpei Komiyama},
The sea crossing from Libya to Italy is one of the world’s most dangerous and politically contentious migration routes, and yet over half a million people have attempted the crossing since 2014. Leveraging data on aggregate migration flows and individual migration incidents, we estimate how migrants and smugglers have reacted to changes in border enforcement, namely the rise in interceptions by the Libyan Coast Guard starting in 2017 and the corresponding decrease in the probability of rescue… 



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