Strange Expectations

  title={Strange Expectations},
  author={Ian Hacking},
  journal={Philosophy of Science},
  pages={562 - 567}
  • I. Hacking
  • Published 1 December 1980
  • Philosophy of Science
A new problem about mathematical expectation: there exists a state of affairs S and options H and T such that in every element of one partition of S, the expectation of H exceeds that of T, while in every element of a different partition of S, the expectation of T exceeds that of H. This problem may be connected with questions about inference in the short and long run, and with questions about confidence intervals and fiducial probability. 
The St. Petersburg paradox despite risk-seeking preferences: an experimental study
The St. Petersburg paradox is one of the oldest challenges of expected value theory. Thus far, explanations of the paradox aim at small probabilities being perceived as zero and the boundedness of


On the Relation E(X) = E{E(X∣Y)}