Pre-production forecasting of movie revenues with a dynamic artificial neural network
How does the market react to news regarding large uncertain projects? We analyze stock market reactions to information about changes in opening dates of movies, and present two main ndings. First, we nd systematic negative stock price response to the changes we consider, suggesting that any changes are interpreted as bad news by the market. Second, we nd that the market reaction is greater for movies with higher production costs, but is unrelated to moviessubsequent box o¢ ce revenues. This may point to a limited ability of the market to predict the box o¢ ce performance of a movie.