Stochastic epidemics in dynamic populations: quasi-stationarity and extinction.

@article{Anderson2000StochasticEI,
  title={Stochastic epidemics in dynamic populations: quasi-stationarity and extinction.},
  author={Heather. Anderson and Tom Britton},
  journal={Journal of mathematical biology},
  year={2000},
  volume={41 6},
  pages={559-80}
}
Empirical evidence shows that childhood diseases persist in large communities whereas in smaller communities the epidemic goes extinct (and is later reintroduced by immigration). The present paper treats a stochastic model describing the spread of an infectious disease giving life-long immunity, in a community where individuals die and new individuals are born. The time to extinction of the disease starting in quasi-stationarity (conditional on non-extinction) is exponentially distributed. As… CONTINUE READING

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