Statistical tests for evaluating earthquake prediction methods

  title={Statistical tests for evaluating earthquake prediction methods},
  author={Kurt S. Riedel},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  • K. Riedel
  • Published 27 May 1996
  • Geology
  • Geophysical Research Letters
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the enhancement factor over random chance is given. The seismic earthquake signal may preferentially precede earthquakes even if the VAN methodology fails to forecast the earthquakes. We formulate a statistical test for this possibility. 

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This thesis investigates electric current signals generated spontaneously in specimens of Carrara marble during deformation under crustal conditions. It extends previous work where similar currents



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A three year continuous sample of earthquake predictions based on the observation of Seismic Electric Signals in Greece was published by Varotsos and Lazaridou [1991]. Four independent studies

Comment on ‘Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of ‘VAN’ earthquake precursors’ by Francesco Mulargia and Paolo Gasperini

The paper by Mulargia & Gasperini (1992) concluded that ‘the apparent success of VAN predictions can be confidently ascribed to chance’. This conclusion contradicts our earlier publication and hence

Multivariate Density Estimation

Exploring and identifying structure is even more important for multivariate data than univariate data, given the difficulties in graphically presenting multivariate data and the comparative lack of

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The Kernel Method for Multivariate Data: Three Important Methods and Density Estimation in Action.

Probability: A Survey of the Mathematical Theory

Foundations Laws of Large Numbers and Random Series Limiting Distributions and the Central Limit Problem The Brownian Motion Process Appendix Bibliography Index List of Series Titles.

Seismic electric currents , Prakt

  • Akad . Athenon
  • 1981

Seismic electric currents

  • Prakt. Akad. Athenon
  • 1981