# Statistical tests for evaluating earthquake prediction methods

@article{Riedel1996StatisticalTF, title={Statistical tests for evaluating earthquake prediction methods}, author={Kurt S. Riedel}, journal={Geophysical Research Letters}, year={1996}, volume={23}, pages={1407-1409} }

The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the enhancement factor over random chance is given. The seismic earthquake signal may preferentially precede earthquakes even if the VAN methodology fails to forecast the earthquakes. We formulate a statistical test for this possibility.

## 8 Citations

### Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: Comments and reflections

- Psychology
- 1996

The papers in the debate show that precise consideration of whether various events should be considered as having been successfully predicted is one of the key issues for statistical testing of the…

### Testing earthquake predictions

- Geology
- 2008

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify 'chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to…

### Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis

- Geology
- 1997

SUMMARY
The null hypothesis in assessing earthquake predictions is often, loosely speaking, that the successful predictions are chance coincidences. To make this more precise requires specifying a…

### Testing Earthquake Prediction Results Statistically

- Geology
- 1997

The work of a professional seismologist is not all science; often a significant amount of public relations comes into it as well. One aspect of this is the requirement, increasingly common, to…

### IMS Collections Probability and Statistics : Essays in Honor of

- Geology
- 2008

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify ‘chance success’ is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to…

### Decision analysis for earthquake prediction methodologies: fuzzy inference algorithm for trust validation

- Geology, Computer Science
- 2012

A fuzzy inference model is developed by correlating evaluatory parameters by surveying analytical work of the data sets used,umerical experimentation done in analysis and the global application and success rate of 18 of the most viable earthquake prediction algorithms developed by mutually comparing different models in earthquake predictability experiments.

### Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN Case so far

- Computer Science
- 1996

A reliable identification of seismic precursors requires a two-step statistical approach: a retrospective “learning” step to establish the candidate precursors on the basis of ad hoc chosen laws of…

### Deformation-induced electric currents in marble under simulated crustal conditions : non-extensivity, superstatistical dynamics and implications for earthquake hazard

- Geology
- 2015

This thesis investigates electric current signals generated spontaneously in specimens of Carrara marble during deformation under crustal conditions. It extends previous work where similar currents…

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SUMMARY
All predictions of the future can be to some extent successful by chance. This is a crucial issue mostly overlooked in assessing the validity of earthquake precursors. We analyse…

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