Statistical aspects of best estimate method - I

  title={Statistical aspects of best estimate method - I},
  author={Attila Guba and Mih{\'a}ly Makai and L{\'e}n{\'a}rd P{\'a}l},
  journal={Rel. Eng. & Sys. Safety},
In former years, thermal hydraulics phenomena have been analyzed mostly by means of conservative models. Recently there is a tendency to revert to best estimate safety analysis of thermal hydraulics phenomena in a nuclear power plant. In a best estimate analysis we have to know the uncertainty of the estimated values. We investigate two aspects of the error analysis. Firstly, we define a black box model of the thermal hydraulic calculation and derive the precise number of sample calculations… CONTINUE READING