# Statistical Significance of Minimum of the Order Parameter Fluctuations of Seismicity Before Major Earthquakes in Japan

@article{Sarlis2014StatisticalSO, title={Statistical Significance of Minimum of the Order Parameter Fluctuations of Seismicity Before Major Earthquakes in Japan}, author={N. Sarlis and E. Skordas and S. Christopoulos and P. Varotsos}, journal={Pure and Applied Geophysics}, year={2014}, volume={173}, pages={165-172} }

In a previous publication, the seismicity of Japan from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the time of the $$M9$$M9 Tohoku earthquake occurrence) has been analyzed in a time domain called natural time $$\chi.$$χ. The order parameter of seismicity in this time domain is the variance of $$\chi$$χ weighted for normalized energy of each earthquake. It was found that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit 15 distinct minima—deeper than a certain threshold—1 to around 3 months… Expand

#### 12 Citations

Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan

- Geography, Medicine
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- 2013

It is found that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit distinct minima a few months before all of the shallow earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 or larger that occurred during this 27-y period in the Japanese area. Expand

Natural Time Analysis: The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of the Order Parameter Fluctuations Minima Preceding Major Earthquakes

- Medicine, Computer Science
- Entropy
- 2020

Fifteen distinct minima—observed simultaneously at two different natural time scales and deeper than a certain threshold—are found on analyzing the seismicity of Japan from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the time of the M9 Tohoku EQ occurrence) 1 to 3 months before large EQs. Expand

Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity.

- Physics, Medicine
- Chaos
- 2015

Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4. Expand

Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity and earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns

- Geology
- 2019

Abstract Natural time analysis has provided an order parameter for seismicity. It has been shown that the fluctuations of this order parameter exhibit characteristic minima before strong earthquakes… Expand

MW9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan: precursors uncovered by natural time analysis

- Geology
- 2017

This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 MW9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not… Expand

Natural Time Analysis of Seismicity within the Mexican Flat Slab before the M7.1 Earthquake on 19 September 2017

- Medicine, Computer Science
- Entropy
- 2020

It is shown that, after the minimum of ΔS, the order parameter of seismicity starts diminishing, thus approaching gradually the critical value 0.070 around the end of August and the beginning of September 2017, which signals that a strong earthquake is anticipated shortly in the flat slab. Expand

On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis

- Geology
- 2020

Natural time analysis has led to the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity when considering earthquakes as critical phenomena. The study of the fluctuations of this order parameter has… Expand

Statistical Significance of Earth’s Electric and Magnetic Field Variations Preceding Earthquakes in Greece and Japan Revisited

- Geology, Medicine
- Entropy
- 2018

It is found that the anomalous variations observed in the Earth’s electric and magnetic fields before earthquakes in different regions of the world and in particular in Greece since 1980s and Japan during 2001–2010 are revisited and are far beyond chance. Expand

Identifying the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake: a review

- Geology
- 2017

The procedure through which the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake can be determined is reviewed in the light of the recent advances. This can be achieved by analyzing in natural time… Expand

Micro-scale, mid-scale, and macro-scale in global seismicity identified by empirical mode decomposition and their multifractal characteristics

- Geology, Medicine
- Scientific Reports
- 2018

It is shown that when using the mid-scale time-series only, it can obtain results similar to those obtained by the natural time analysis of global seismicity when focusing on the prediction of earthquakes with M ≥ 8.4. Expand

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Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan

- Geography, Medicine
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- 2013

It is found that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit distinct minima a few months before all of the shallow earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 or larger that occurred during this 27-y period in the Japanese area. Expand

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We have previously shown that the probability distribution of the order parameter κ1 of seismicity in natural time turns to be bimodal when approaching a mainshock. This reflects that, for various… Expand

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The natural time domain has shown to be an important tool to obtain relevant information hidden in time series of complex systems not easily obtainable by means of standard analysis methods. By… Expand

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[1] The Region-Time-Length (RTL) method was adopted in analyzing the characteristics of the seismicity changes prior to the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008. After the pre-analyses… Expand

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