Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction

@article{Kagan1987StatisticalSE,
  title={Statistical Short-Term Earthquake Prediction},
  author={Y. Kagan and L. Knopoff},
  journal={Science},
  year={1987},
  volume={236},
  pages={1563 - 1567}
}
A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7… Expand

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