• Corpus ID: 235377121

Spatial modelling of COVID-19 incident cases using Richards' curve: an application to the Italian regions

  title={Spatial modelling of COVID-19 incident cases using Richards' curve: an application to the Italian regions},
  author={Marco Mingione and Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro and Alessio Farcomeni and Fabio Divino and Gianfranco Lovison and Giovanna Jona Lasinio and Antonello Maruotti},
We introduce an extended generalised logistic growth model for discrete outcomes, in which a network structure can be specified to deal with spatial dependence and time dependence is dealt with using an Auto-Regressive approach. A major challenge concerns the specification of the network structure, crucial to consistently estimate the canonical parameters of the generalised logistic curve, e.g. peak time and height. Parameters are estimated under the Bayesian framework, using the Stan… 

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