Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity.

  title={Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity.},
  author={Jessica Blois and John W. Williams and Matthew C Fitzpatrick and Stephen T Jackson and Simon Ferrier},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume={110 23},
"Space-for-time" substitution is widely used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the foundational assumption--that drivers of spatial gradients of species composition also drive temporal changes in diversity--rarely is tested. Here, we empirically test the space-for-time assumption by constructing orthogonal datasets of compositional turnover of plant taxa and climatic dissimilarity through time and… CONTINUE READING
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Modeling the climatic drivers of spatial patterns in vegetation composition since the Last Glacial Maximum

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  • Ecography
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No-analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late Quaternary: Implications for 21st-century predictions by species distribution models

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  • Glob Change Biol
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A methodological framework for assessing and reducing temporal uncertainty in paleovegetation mapping from late-Quaternary pollen records

  • JL Blois, J Williams, E Grimm, ST Jackson, RW Graham
  • Quat Sci Rev 30(15–16):1926–1939
  • 2011

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