Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action

@article{Cowles1937SomeAP,
  title={Some A Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action},
  author={Alfred Cowles and Herbert Edwin Jones},
  journal={Econometrica},
  year={1937},
  volume={5},
  pages={280}
}
IN 1933, one of the authors' published an analysis of the results secured by 45 representative financial agencies in forecasting the prices of common stocks. This study, embracing the period of 41 years from January, 1928 to June, 1932, and including several thousand individual forecasts, showed that these were unsuccessful more often than successful and that, indeed, better results in the aggregate would probably have been secured by investors through following purely random investment… Expand

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