Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: a matter of information structure and question form

@article{Girotto2001SolvingPA,
  title={Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: a matter of information structure and question form},
  author={V. Girotto and M. Gonzalez},
  journal={Cognition},
  year={2001},
  volume={78},
  pages={247-276}
}
Is the human mind inherently unable to reason probabilistically, or is it able to do so only when problems tap into a module for reasoning about natural frequencies? We suggest an alternative possibility: naive individuals are able to reason probabilistically when they can rely on a representation of subsets of chances or frequencies. We predicted that naive individuals solve conditional probability problems if they can infer conditional probabilities from the subset relations in their… Expand
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