Skill and uncertainty in climate models

  title={Skill and uncertainty in climate models},
  author={Julia C. Hargreaves},
  journal={Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change},
  • J. Hargreaves
  • Published 1 July 2010
  • Environmental Science
  • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
Analyses of skill are widely used for assessing weather predictions, but the time scale and lack of validation data mean that it is not generally possible to investigate the predictive skill of today's climate models on the multidecadal time scale. The predictions made with early climate models can, however, be analyzed, and here we show that one such forecast did have skill. It seems reasonable to expect that predictions based on today's more advanced models will be at least as skillful. In… 
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