Size and Duration of Empires: Growth-Decline Curves, 600 B.C. to 600 A.D.

@article{Taagepera1979SizeAD,
  title={Size and Duration of Empires: Growth-Decline Curves, 600 B.C. to 600 A.D.},
  author={Rein Taagepera},
  journal={Social Science History},
  year={1979},
  volume={3},
  pages={115 - 138}
}
The first known attempt to explain the duration and supersession of dynasties through calculations was made in the first century B.C. by Tsou Yen or his disciples in China (Eberhard, 1950: 60). The calculations were astrological. The rulers’ response was inimical. Maybe this is why no further attempts were made during the next two thousand years, in spite of astrology continuing to flourish. The objectives of the present study are somewhat related to those of Tsou Yen although the calculations… 

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