Simultaneous/multiple cause-delay (SIMCAD): an epidemiological approach to projecting mortality.

  title={Simultaneous/multiple cause-delay (SIMCAD): an epidemiological approach to projecting mortality.},
  author={S. Jay Olshansky},
  journal={Journal of gerontology},
  volume={42 4},
Methods being used to project mortality are based on the hypothetical elimination of one or more diseases from the population or on extrapolation from observed mortality rates. This research presents an alternative projection method based on an epidemiological theory of aging and mortality change that is consistent with recent mortality transitions. The model is founded on the observation that recent mortality declines in the United States are attributable to improved life styles and advances… CONTINUE READING