• Corpus ID: 253801707

Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution

  title={Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Fundamental Drivers for Location, Shape and Scale of the Price Distribution},
  author={Simon Hirsch and Florian Ziel},
: During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday price process are still sparsely researched. In this paper, we propose a modelling strategy for the location, shape and scale parameters of the return distribution in intraday markets, based on fundamental variables. We consider wind and solar forecasts… 



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  • F. Ziel
  • Engineering, Economics
    2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)
  • 2017
We present a regression based model for intraday electricity spot prices to analyze the impact of renewable energy forecasting errors. The proposed time series model is suitable to quantify the

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