Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight

@article{Gigerenzer2003SimpleTF,
  title={Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight},
  author={Gerd Gigerenzer and Adrian G. K. Edwards},
  journal={BMJ : British Medical Journal},
  year={2003},
  volume={327},
  pages={741 - 744}
}
Bad presentation of medical statistics such as the risks associated with a particular intervention can lead to patients making poor decisions on treatment. Particularly confusing are single event probabilities, conditional probabilities (such as sensitivity and specificity), and relative risks. How can doctors improve the presentation of statistical information so that patients can make well informed decisions? The science fiction writer H G Wells predicted that in modern technological… 
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