• Corpus ID: 251253383

Simple models predict behavior at least as well as behavioral scientists

@inproceedings{Bowen2022SimpleMP,
  title={Simple models predict behavior at least as well as behavioral scientists},
  author={Dillon Bowen},
  year={2022}
}
How accurately can behavioral scientists predict behavior? To answer this question, we analyzed data from five studies in which 640 professional behavioral scientists predicted the results of one or more behavioral science experiments. We compared the behavioral scientists’ predictions to random chance, linear models, and simple heuristics like “behavioral interventions have no effect” and “all published psychology research is false.” We find that behavioral scientists are consistently no better… 

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