Corpus ID: 17615345

Should Probabilities Be Used with Scenarios

@article{Millett2009ShouldPB,
  title={Should Probabilities Be Used with Scenarios},
  author={S. Millett},
  journal={Journal of Futures Studies},
  year={2009},
  volume={13},
  pages={61-68}
}
  • S. Millett
  • Published 2009
  • Economics
  • Journal of Futures Studies
It has been long argued that all scenarios should represent possible, not likely, futures and should not be assigned any probabilities. One argument is that the scenario team and managers should consider all the scenarios as equally likely and to prepare for each scenario. In addition, the strategic purpose of scenarios is to think of alternative futures and get away from financial and other types of time-series trend forecasts. On the other hand, there is a counter-argument that says that… Expand
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  • Columbus, OH: Futuring Associates LLC. Retrieved February
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