Serial clustering of intense European storms

  title={Serial clustering of intense European storms},
  author={Renato Vitolo and David B. Stephenson and Ian M. Cook and Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace},
  journal={Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
This study has investigated how the clustering of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones depends on the vorticity intensity of the cyclones, and the sampling time period over which cyclone transits are counted. Clustering is characterized by the dispersion (ratio of the variance and the mean) of the counts of eastward transits of cyclone tracks obtained by objective tracking of 850 hPa vorticity features in NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. The counts are aggregated over non-overlapping time periods lasting… 

Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

Cyclone clusters are a frequent synoptic feature in the Euro-Atlantic area. Recent studies have shown that serial clustering of cyclones generally occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large‐scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and

Large‐scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large

New perspectives on the collective risk of extratropical cyclones

In this study, the relationship between the frequency and intensity of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic is investigated. A cyclone track database of extended October–March winters was

Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes

Wintertime extreme precipitation from cyclone clusters, i.e. consecutive cyclones moving across the same region, can lead to flooding and devastating socio-economic impacts in Europe. Previous

Associations of atmospheric teleconnections with wintertime extratropical cyclones over East Asia and Northwest Pacific

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over East Asia and Northwest Pacific are identified and tracked by applying an objective algorithm to the 850-hPa relative vorticity fields from the ERA-Interim

The role of European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from a high resolution climate model

Abstract. Extratropical cyclones are the most damaging natural hazard to affect western Europe. Serial clustering occurs when many intense cyclones affect one area in a period of time which can

The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

Abstract. The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the (re-)insurance industry. Our knowledge of the risk is limited by large uncertainties in

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones: a review of where, when and why it occurs

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones describes the passage of multiple cyclones over a fixed location within a given time period. Such periods often result in high precipitation totals and

Vb Cyclones Synchronized With the Arctic‐/North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper explores the temporal characteristics of Vb cyclone occurrence based on cyclone tracks identified at the atmospheric levels of Z700 and sea level pressure, using JRA‐55 reanalysis data for the period 1959–2015.



Clustering of cyclones in the ARPEGE general circulation model

Baroclinic waves give major contributions to the climatology and variability of key climate variables in mid- and highlatitudes. Animportant aspect of cyclone variability is the seriality (succession

Serial Clustering of Extratropical Cyclones

Abstract The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been

Improving Extended-Range Seasonal Predictions of Intense Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Abstract This study shows that hindcasts of seasonal numbers of intense Atlantic hurricanes made using a nonlinear statistical model are superior to those made by linear statistical models previously

On the (In)Homogeneity of Reanalysis Products

Abstract The homogeneity of the ECMWF 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is assessed. This is done by comparing ERA-40 data with results from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and also by investigating a known

Trends in storminess over the Netherlands, 1962–2002

Trends in the annual number of independent wind events over the Netherlands are studied for the period 1962–2002. The events are selected out of 13 hourly 10 m wind speed records that are part of a

A General Method for Tracking Analysis and Its Application to Meteorological Data

A general method for performing the synoptic identification of phenomena that can be used for an objective analysis of atmospheric, or oceanographic, datasets obtained from numerical models and remote sensing.

Spherical Nonparametric Estimators Applied to the UGAMP Model Integration for AMIP

Abstract The aim of this paper is essentially twofold: first, to describe the use of spherical nonparametric estimators for determining statistical diagnostic fields from ensembles of feature tracks

Feature Tracking on the Unit Sphere

An alternative feature detection scheme is described based on cubic interpolation for the sphere and local maximization and an example of the application of these techniques to a global relative vorticity field from a model integration are presented and discussed.

Regression Analysis of Count Data: Author Index

This second edition of this book is an expanded and updated version of the first, with new empirical examples and more than two hundred new references added.

The Claude Bernard Lecture, 1989 - Deterministic chaos: the science and the fiction

  • D. Ruelle
  • Physics
    Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences
  • 1990
Under the name of chaos the mathematical ideas of differentiable dynamics have had a profound impact on physics. Some success stories are discussed. Attention is also directed to the excessive