Separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic model validation

@article{Mullins2016SeparationOA,
  title={Separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic model validation},
  author={Joshua Mullins and You Ling and Sankaran Mahadevan and Lin Sun and Alejandro Strachan},
  journal={Rel. Eng. & Sys. Safety},
  year={2016},
  volume={147},
  pages={49-59}
}
This paper investigates model validation under a variety of different data scenarios and clarifies how different validation metrics may be appropriate for different scenarios. In the presence of multiple uncertainty sources, model validation metrics that compare the distributions of model prediction and observation are considered. Both ensemble validation and point-by-point approaches are discussed, and it is shown how applying the model reliability metric point-by-point enables the separation… CONTINUE READING

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