Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes : The importance of timescale

  title={Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes : The importance of timescale},
  author={Benjamin David Santer and Carl A. Mears and Charles M. Doutriaux and Peter Caldwell and Peter John Gleckler and Tom M. L. Wigley and Susan Solomon and Nathan P. Gillett and Dina M. Ivanova and Thomas R. Karl and John R. Lanzante and Gerald A. Meehl and Peter A. Stott and Karl E. Taylor and Peter W. Thorne and Michael F. Wehner and Frank Wentz},
[1] We compare global‐scale changes in satellite estimates of the temperature of the lower troposphere (TLT) with model simulations of forced and unforced TLT changes. While previous work has focused on a single period of record, we select analysis timescales ranging from 10 to 32 years, and then compare all possible observed TLT trends on each timescale with corresponding multi‐model distributions of forced and unforced trends. We use observed estimates of the signal component of TLT changes… CONTINUE READING


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