Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies

  title={Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies},
  author={Lisa M. Goddard and Simon J. Mason},
  journal={Climate Dynamics},
Abstract.Most estimates of the skill of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) for forecasting seasonal climate anomalies have been based on simulations with actual observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary forcing. Similarly estimates of the climatological response characteristics of AGCMs used for seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction generally rest on historical simulations using "perfect" SST forecasts. This work examines the errors and biases introduced into… 
Predictive Skill of AGCM Seasonal Climate Forecasts Subject to Different SST Prediction Methodologies
Abstract This study examines skill of retrospective forecasts using the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with predicted sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from methods of
Abstract The Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium of the Applied Research Centers is engaging in a real-time activity to detect and understand the role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in
Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill
In this study the authors diagnose the sources for the contiguous U.S. seasonal forecast skill that are related to sea surface temperature (SST) variations using a combination of dynamical and
CGCM and AGCM seasonal climate predictions: A study in CCSM4
Seasonal climate predictions are formulated from known present conditions and simulate the near‐term climate for approximately a year in the future. Recent efforts in seasonal climate prediction
Sensitivity of regional climatic simulation over Southeastern South America to SST specification during austral summer
The impact of the sea‐surface temperature (SST) specification over the South Atlantic Ocean on the interannual variability of the simulated precipitation and air temperature over Southeastern South
SST prediction methodologies and verification considerations for dynamical mid-summer rainfall forecasts for South Africa
Seasonal-to-interannual hindcasts (re-forecasts) for December-January-February (DJF) produced at a 1-month lead-time by the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are verified after
Role of Retrospective Forecasts of GCMs Forced with Persisted SST Anomalies in Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development
Abstract Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for water resources planning and management as well as for setting up contingency measures during extreme years.
The Effect of Spatial Aggregation on the Skill of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts
Abstract Skillful forecasts of 3-month total precipitation would be useful for decision making in hydrology, agriculture, public health, and other sectors of society. However, with some exceptions,
Predictability of Seasonal Sahel Rainfall Using GCMs and Lead-Time Improvements Through the Use of a Coupled Model
AbstractThe ability of several atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (AGCMs and CGCMs, respectively) is explored for the prediction of seasonal July–September (JAS)
Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination of MOS and perfect prognosis
A statistical‐dynamical approach to probabilistic precipitation forecasts of southern African summer rainfall is described and validated. An ensemble of seasonal precipitation and circulation fields


Prospects and Limitations of Seasonal Atmospheric GCM Predictions
Abstract Climate simulations and hindcast experiments of increasingly large ensemble size are being performed to determine the predictive capability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)
Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts during the 1997/98 ENSO Using Persisted SST Anomalies
Abstract An evaluation of trial seasonal forecasts during the 1997/98 El Nino, using an atmospheric GCM forced by persisted sea surface temperature and sea-ice anomalies, is presented. Generally,
Sensitivity of the Systematic Error of Extended Range Forecasts to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Abstract The sensitivity of the systematic error of extended-range forecasts to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated. General circulation model (GCM) experiments were performed to
Monte Carlo climate forecasting
Abstract Ensemble forecasts of global climate conditions during the seven largest Pacific warm/cold events of the last 23 years have been made with a new two-tiered climate forecast technique. The
Seasonal Predictions, Probabilistic Verifications, and Ensemble Size
Abstract For the case of probabilistic seasonal forecasts verified by the rank probability skill score, the dependence of the expected value of seasonal forecast skill on a hypothesized perfect
Atmospheric Seasonal Predictability and Estimates of Ensemble Size
Abstract Results from a set of nine-member ensemble seasonal integrations with a T63L19 version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model are presented. The integrations
Long-Lead Seasonal ForecastsWhere Do We Stand?
Abstract The National Weather Service intends to begin routinely issuing long-lead forecasts of 3-month mean U.S. temperature and precipitation by the beginning of 1995. The ability to produce useful
Assessing Potential Seasonal Predictability with an Ensemble of Multidecadal GCM Simulations
Abstract A global search for areas where seasonal prediction may be feasible has attracted scientific interest for many years. This contribution is based primarily on data from a six-member ensemble
Pattern Analysis of SST-Forced Variability in Ensemble GCM Simulations: Examples over Europe and the Tropical Pacific
Abstract An ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) simulations with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) generates a rich dataset. The main aim here is to advocate and
Modeling the Seasonal Dependence of the Atmospheric Response to Observed El Niños in 1962–76
  • N. Lau
  • Environmental Science
  • 1985
Abstract Two 15-year atmospheric GCM integrations are conducted with the lower boundary over the tropical Pacific being forced by observed month-to-month sea surface temperature (SST) changes during