Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Simulations to Parametric Uncertainties in Air–Sea Fluxes and Implications for Parameter Estimation

@article{Green2014SensitivityOT,
  title={Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Simulations to Parametric Uncertainties in Air–Sea Fluxes and Implications for Parameter Estimation},
  author={Benjamin W. Green and Fuqing Zhang},
  journal={Monthly Weather Review},
  year={2014},
  volume={142},
  pages={2290-2308}
}
AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) are strongly influenced by fluxes of momentum and moist enthalpy across the air–sea interface. These fluxes cannot be resolved explicitly by current-generation numerical weather prediction models, and therefore must be accounted for via empirical parameterizations of surface exchange coefficients (CD for momentum and Ck for moist enthalpy). The resultant model uncertainty is examined through hundreds of convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting Model… 
Impacts of Ocean Cooling and Reduced Wind Drag on Hurricane Katrina (2005) Based on Numerical Simulations
AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) intensity is strongly influenced by surface fluxes of momentum and moist enthalpy (typically parameterized in terms of “exchange coefficients” Cd and Ck, respectively).
Nonlinear Impacts of Surface Exchange Coefficient Uncertainty on Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Air‐Sea Interactions
Tropical cyclone maximum intensity is believed to result from a balance between the surface friction, which removes energy, and a temperature/moisture (enthalpy) difference between the sea surface
Sensitivity of Sea‐Surface Enthalpy and Momentum Fluxes to Sea Spray Microphysics
The air-sea fluxes of enthalpy and momentum are the governing thermal energy source and mechanical energy sink, which control hurricane intensity, but representing these fluxes in simulations is
A Review of Parameterizations for Enthalpy and Momentum Fluxes from Sea Spray in Tropical Cyclones
The intensity of tropical cyclones is sensitive to the air-sea fluxes of enthalpy and momentum. Sea spray plays a critical role in mediating enthalpy and momentum fluxes over the ocean’s surface at
Evaluation of Atmosphere and Ocean Initial Condition Uncertainty and Stochastic Exchange Coefficients on Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts
AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are impacted by errors in atmosphere and ocean initial conditions and the model formulation, which motivates using an ensemble approach. This study
Idealized Large-Eddy Simulations of a Tropical Cyclone-like Boundary Layer
AbstractThe tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer (TCBL)—featuring extreme winds over a rough ocean—is difficult to study observationally. With increasing computational power, high-resolution
Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation
This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of a regional model in simulating hurricane wind and pressure fields, and the feasibility of driving coastal storm surge
How Well Can the Met Office Unified Model Forecast Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
AbstractConvection-permitting numerical weather prediction models are a key tool for forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensities, intensity changes, and precipitation. The Met Office has been
Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity and Structure to Two Types of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes in Idealized HWRF Simulations
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the sensitivity of simulated hurricane intensity and structure to two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast model
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 63 REFERENCES
Impacts of Air–Sea Flux Parameterizations on the Intensity and Structure of Tropical Cyclones
AbstractFluxes of momentum and moist enthalpy across the air–sea interface are believed to be one of the most important factors in determining tropical cyclone intensity. Because these surface fluxes
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Surface Exchange Coefficients and a Revised Steady-State Model incorporating Eye Dynamics
Abstract Numerical and theoretical models of tropical cyclones indicate that the maximum wind speed in mature storms is sensitive to the ratio of the enthalpy and momentum surface exchange
Simultaneous Optimization of Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients and Initial Conditions near a Tropical Cyclone Using JNoVA
The impact of optimizing the air̶sea exchange coefficients and the initial state is examined for a tropical cyclone (TC)with the aim of improving an operational mesoscale four-dimensional variational
Impact of Physics Representations in the HWRFX on Simulated Hurricane Structure and Pressure–Wind Relationships
AbstractA series of idealized experiments with the NOAA Experimental Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRFX) are performed to examine the sensitivity of idealized tropical cyclone
Specifying Air-Sea Exchange Coefficients in the High-Wind Regime of a Mature Tropical Cyclone by an Adjoint Data Assimilation Method
Uncertainty in the values of air-sea exchange coefficients has a detrimental effect on tropical cyclone (TC) modeling. Since a TC is one of the most destructive disasters, a method is required to
THE RESPONSE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL TO VARIATIONS IN BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERS, INITIAL CONDITIONS, LATERAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS, AND DOMAIN SIZE
Abstract Tropical cyclone model experiments are summarized in which the drag coefficient and the analogous exchange coefficients for sensible and latent heat are varied. During the early portions of
Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations
The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University‐National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model is used to simulate Hurricane Bob (1991) using grids nested to high resolution (4 km).
Air–Sea Flux Estimates And The 1997–1998 Enso Event
Bulk formulae for wind stress, sensible and latent heat flux are presented that are suitable for strong mesoscale events such as westerly wind bursts that contribute to the El Niño-Southern
First direct measurements of enthalpy flux in the hurricane boundary layer: The CBLAST results
Hurricanes extract energy from the warm ocean through enthalpy fluxes. As part of the Coupled Boundary Layer Air‐Sea Transfer (CBLAST) experiment, flights were conducted to measure turbulent fluxes
Sensitivity of tropical‐cyclone models to the surface drag coefficient in different boundary‐layer schemes
The recent study of the sensitivity of tropical‐cyclone intensification to the surface drag coefficient in a three‐dimensional model by Montgomery et al. is extended to include a wind‐speed‐dependent
...
...